The robot decade: How rare earth elements are shaping a new industrial age

Imagine stepping into a cavernous factory hall where the only chorus is the soft hum of robotic arms, each one moving with surgical precision. There are no soot-stained chimneys and no roaring steel presses. This silent revolution is not the distant dream of science fiction but the unfolding reality of a new industrial epoch, one powered by algorithms, sensors, and a handful of indispensable metals.

A Turning Point for Industry
According to analysts at UBS, we stand at the threshold of what might be called “the robot decade.” It forecasts that by 2030, the global fleet of industrial robots will swell from today’s 3.7 million to nearly 6 million units. Declining hardware costs, leaps in artificial intelligence, and ageing workforces in advanced economies are converging to make automation irresistible and increasingly affordable.

Beyond Human Replacement
Yet this is no simple tale of machines elbowing humans aside on the factory floor. UBS describes a “multi-decade productivity transformation” in which sectors as varied as automotive, electronics, and even construction deploy robots to alleviate labour shortages, curb burgeoning wage bills, and squeeze every last drop of efficiency from their operations. In Shenzhen, automated assembly lines chip away at the cost of smartphones; in Wolfsburg, Germany, robotic welders keep Volkswagen plants humming despite a tight labour market; and in Detroit, U.S. factories, long criticized for lagging in automation, are belatedly embracing robots, spurred by on-shoring incentives such as the CHIPS Act.

The Rare-Earth Squeeze
But beneath the gleaming exteriors of these machines lies a less glamorous reality: the irreplaceable rare-earth elements that make high-performance motors and sensors possible. Neodymium and dysprosium, key ingredients in the powerful permanent magnets that drive electric motors, are at the heart of this supply-chain conundrum. Today, China controls roughly 70% of global rare-earth production, creating what UBS calls a “materials pinch point” that threatens to hobble the very automation it helps enable.

A Strategic Bottleneck
Extracting and processing rare earths is neither easy nor environmentally benign. Mountain-scale open pits scar once-pristine landscapes, while refining these ores demands vast quantities of water and chemicals. Although new mines are sprouting in Australia, Canada, and the United States, it may take years or even a decade before they can shift the balance. In the meantime, any surge in demand for robots, wind turbines, or electric vehicles risks sending prices skyward, stalling production lines, and entangling nations in fresh geopolitical tug-of-wars.

The Geopolitical Chessboard
China has already demonstrated how quickly it can turn off or throttle back rare-earth exports to exert political leverage. In the past decade, trade tensions with the U.S. and Europe have flared over everything from tariffs to technology transfers; a rare-earth embargo would be a much sharper weapon. As the world electrifies and automates in tandem, securing a stable supply of these critical minerals becomes as much a matter of national security as economic competitiveness.

Where the Money Is Going
Unsurprisingly, investors are taking note. UBS highlights growing interest in companies that mine rare earths, process them, or develop technologies to reduce or recycle them. Startups promising magnet recycling, novel motor designs requiring fewer critical metals, or alternative compounds are attracting venture capital. These early movers could become the unsung heroes of the next industrial age by turning yesterday’s electronic waste into tomorrow’s factory workhorses.

A Broader Tapestry
Automation and electrification are not isolated trends but threads in a larger tapestry that includes decarbonization, reconfigured supply chains, and the race to net-zero emissions. As factories sprout solar canopies and fleet operators swap diesel rigs for hydrogen-fuelled trucks, the interplay between geopolitics, engineering breakthroughs, and financial markets grows ever more intricate.

Eyes on Two Fronts
If you are thinking long-term, UBS recommends watching both sides of the coin. On one flank are the companies building the robots: manufacturers of industrial arms, designers of AI control systems, and integrators of turnkey automation solutions. On the other end are the miners, processors, and recyclers wrestling with rare-earth bottlenecks. Each stands to gain profoundly from the acceleration of machine-led production.

Key Rare Earth Companies to Watch
Here are some of the major rare earth mining companies and other notable players poised to shape this field:

Major Rare Earth Mining Companies

• Lynas Rare Earths Ltd: A leading producer of separated rare earth materials, with operations in Australia and Malaysia.
• MP Materials: Operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only rare earth mining and processing site in the United States.
• Iluka Resources: A global mining and exploration company with rare earth projects.
• Northern Minerals: Focuses on heavy rare earth elements, particularly dysprosium and terbium, at its Browns Range project in Western Australia.
• Arafura Rare Earths: Developing the Nolans rare earth project in Australia.
• Australian Strategic Materials: Producing rare earth metals and alloys, including at its Korean Metals Plant.
• Hastings Technology Metals: Developing the Yangibana rare earth project in Western Australia.
• China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech Co., Ltd: One of the largest rare earth companies in China.
• China Rare Earth Group: A major Chinese rare earth producer formed by the merger of several companies.

Other Notable Companies

• Energy Fuels: A uranium producer that is also involved in rare earth element processing.
• Neo Performance Materials: A global producer of advanced magnetic materials and other rare earth-based products.
• Alkane Resources: Developing the Dubbo Project, which contains a range of rare earth elements and other critical minerals.
• Aclara Resources: A Canadian company focused on developing rare earth projects.
• Rare Element Resources Ltd: Developing the Bear Lodge project in Wyoming.
• Ucore Rare Metals: Developing the Bokan-Dotson Ridge rare earth project in Alaska.
• Mkango Resources: A rare earths exploration and development company with projects in Malawi.

In the coming years, the quiet click-click-click of servo motors may echo across every continent, remapping the geography of industry around whirring logic boards and the rare elements they command. For those paying attention, the hidden story of the robot decade will be as much about the minerals buried deep beneath our feet as it is about the machines dancing across our factory floors.