Prediction markets have sharply cut the probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 this month after the cryptocurrency fell more than 10% in a single session.
On Polymarket, a platform that allows participants to trade on the outcomes of future events with prices reflecting collective probability estimates, the contract "Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?" dropped 16.5 percentage points, from 38% to 21%, as of 8:18 PM UTC on March 8.
Bitcoin was trading at $65,432 as of March 9, down 10.86% from Sunday's price of $73,406, leaving the asset approximately $14,500 below the contract threshold.
The Polymarket contract closes on April 1, narrowing the window for any recovery.
At 21%, the market is treating the outcome as unlikely but not impossible, with $156,216 in 24-hour trading volume indicating active participation in the repricing.
The selloff has been linked in part to broader macroeconomic turbulence following a surge in oil prices connected to geopolitical tensions involving Iran, which rattled Asian stock markets.
Despite the price weakness, institutional demand for Bitcoin-linked products has not collapsed entirely.
CoinShares data showed $619 million in weekly inflows into crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), funds that track asset prices and trade on stock exchanges, with Bitcoin-based funds leading the category.
CoinDesk noted that Bitcoin's price remained relatively contained compared with other risk assets during the period of acute market stress, pointing to key technical levels as the next reference points for traders.
Barron's warned that oil price dynamics could continue to influence crypto assets in the near term.