Prediction market Polymarket is pricing a 52% probability that SpaceX, Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company, will complete its initial public offering (IPO) by the end of June, with that figure rising to 87% by September and 93% by year-end.
The odds reflect a flurry of reports this week that the company is on the verge of filing its prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the US markets regulator, either this week or in early April.
Bloomberg reported that SpaceX has told prospective investors to expect executive briefings in the weeks after Easter, in so-called testing-the-waters meetings that typically precede a formal listing.
The company is weighing a fundraising target of around $75 billion, Bloomberg said, citing people familiar with the matter, a figure that would dwarf every previous IPO on record.
Saudi Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, currently holds the record after raising more than $29 billion in its 2019 debut.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the IPO is being timed for mid-June, before Musk's 55th birthday on 28 June.
Reports from The Information and CNBC suggest SpaceX could seek a valuation of as much as $1.75 trillion, more than double its last known private valuation of $800 billion in late 2025.
At that price, it would immediately enter the top ten largest public companies in the world and surpass Tesla, Musk's electric vehicle company, in market capitalisation.
Reuters reported that Musk wants as much as 30% of the IPO shares allocated to retail investors, at least three times the proportion typically made available to everyday buyers, with the goal of encouraging longer-term ownership rather than quick institutional sell-offs.
SpaceX commands roughly 80% of the commercial rocket-launch market and also operates Starlink, its satellite-based internet service, according to Motley Fool analysis.
Revenue rose 51% in 2024 and 18% in 2025, though analysts note the pace of growth is moderating as the business matures.
In February, SpaceX completed the acquisition of xAI, Musk's artificial intelligence company, in a deal that valued the combined group at $1.25 trillion.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould described the listing as "an interesting test of market sentiment," noting that shares in the so-called Magnificent Seven technology giants have lagged the S&P 500 index so far this year.