Polymarket traders are betting Nvidia will remain the world's most valuable public company at the end of June, but Alphabet is closing the gap fast after its strongest month on Wall Street in over two decades.
On the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, Nvidia holds a roughly 69% implied probability of retaining the top spot by market capitalisation on 30 June, with Alphabet at 29%.
The market has attracted more than $9 million in trading volume, with Apple, Tesla, Amazon and Saudi Aramco all priced at less than 1% probability.
Nvidia, the dominant designer of chips used to train and run artificial intelligence systems, currently commands a market capitalisation of $4.82 trillion, roughly $160 billion ahead of Alphabet's $4.66 trillion.
Alphabet's stock surged 34% in April, its sharpest monthly gain since October 2004, shortly after Google's initial public offering.
The rally was driven by first-quarter results that beat expectations, with Google Cloud revenue growing 63% year on year to $20 billion.
Google Cloud now accounts for 18% of Alphabet's total revenue, and the unit's operating margin expanded from 9.4% to 32.9% over the same period.
The company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to between $180 billion and $190 billion, signalling a deepening commitment to AI infrastructure.
The contest may hinge on Nvidia's next quarterly results.
The chipmaker is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings on 20 May, with management guiding for revenue of approximately $78 billion, excluding revenue from China where export restrictions have curtailed sales.
Related reading
- Big Tech earnings arrive this week with AI spending and monetisation under the microscope
- Robotaxis face their toughest test in five cities that could define the future of autonomous transport
- The era of zero-click: Google is spending $185bn to break the thing it depends on
At the GTC 2026 conference, chief executive Jensen Huang forecast $1 trillion in combined sales of Nvidia's Blackwell and Vera Rubin chip platforms through 2027.
Polymarket's longer-dated contract covering the end of December 2026 shows a tighter race, with Nvidia at 55% and Alphabet at 35%, suggesting traders expect Alphabet's AI-fuelled momentum to persist through the year.
