Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, lets anyone bet real money on real-world outcomes. The prices it produces aren't polls or vibes. They are crowds of people putting cash behind their convictions. Right now, those crowds are saying some genuinely unsettling things.
Here is what the markets believe, as of this week.
The Fed is not cutting in March
The most consequential number on the site right now isn't about war or politics. It's a dry monetary policy question: will the Federal Reserve cut rates at its March meeting?
The market says no. A 25 basis point cut is priced at just 8%. A cut of 50 basis points or more? 1%. Jerome Powell has spent months insisting the central bank needs more evidence that inflation is beaten before easing, and traders have finally stopped arguing with him. With $50 million in volume behind this market, it is one of the more liquid reads on Fed expectations anywhere.
What makes this interesting is the parallel market running alongside it. Bettors give an 87% probability that Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and longtime critic of Powell, will be confirmed as Fed Chair by 15 May. Trump has been publicly angling to reshape monetary policy. The crowd thinks he gets his man, and quickly.
A US military operation inside Mexico is a 3-in-10 shot
30% is not a small number for something that would have been considered unthinkable two years ago. Polymarket is currently pricing in a 30% probability that the United States conducts an anti-cartel ground operation inside Mexico before the end of March.
The Trump administration designated several Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organisations in January. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has spoken publicly about military options. The market has $230,000 behind it, which is modest by Polymarket standards, but the signal is clear: the crowd does not think this is purely rhetorical.
Mexico's government has made clear it would treat any uninvited military presence as a violation of sovereignty. That tension is part of what makes this bet so charged.
Greenland is a genuine geopolitical market now
20%. That is what bettors currently assign to the United States actually acquiring some part of Greenland in 2026. Seven million dollars in volume has traded on this question.
To be clear about what that means: one in five bettors with money on the line think the most significant territorial expansion in American history since Alaska could happen this year. The Danish government has rejected any sale outright. Greenland's prime minister has said the island is not for sale. None of that has moved the number below 20%.
The Epstein files have a 15% jailing rate
The Trump administration's release of Epstein-related documents has generated enormous media coverage and almost no prosecutions. The market assigns a 15% chance that anyone ends up jailed as a result of the disclosures.
For context, bettors are almost certain, at 95%, that more files will be released. They are far less convinced the documents contain anything that will end in a courtroom. That gap, between what gets disclosed and what gets prosecuted, is doing a lot of work.
Kristi Noem is the cabinet member most likely to leave first
At 24%, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem leads the market for first Trump cabinet departure. Attorney General Pam Bondi is second at 17%. Neither number is overwhelming, but Noem's edge likely reflects ongoing turbulence at DHS and her complicated public profile since her book controversy in 2024.
And then there is the tweet market
Polymarket runs a weekly market on how many times Elon Musk will post on X. Sixteen million dollars in volume has traded across these markets over time. The current resolution window puts the most likely outcome at 340 to 359 posts in a single week, at 64%.
Someone built a $16 million market around counting Elon's tweets. The internet, and its money, continues to find a way