Paul Thomas Anderson has directed some of the most celebrated films of the past three decades. On Sunday night, prediction markets give him a 76% chance of adding Best Picture to that legacy, with One Battle After Another the overwhelming favourite heading into Sunday's ceremony. His cinematographer is similarly dominant, leading that category at 76%. His editor leads film editing at 82%. The film is, by almost every measure the markets can find, this year's dominant awards contender.
And yet the story of the 2026 Oscars is Ryan Coogler.
Sinners earned a record-breaking 16 nominations, a number that reflects both the breadth of the film's ambitions and the Academy's appetite for rewarding them. It leads Best Original Screenplay at 95%, sits second in Best Picture at 21%, and has its star, Michael B. Jordan, as the frontrunner for Best Actor at 57%.
Coogler himself is the only realistic challenger to Anderson in Best Director, sitting at 8% against Anderson's 92%. Those are long odds, but they are not nothing, and the volume of nominations means Coogler's film will be the most discussed of the night regardless of where the major trophies land.
Jordan versus Chalamet
The Best Actor race is the most dramatic shift from conventional wisdom. Timothée Chalamet, who spent awards season as the consensus frontrunner for his role as an eccentric ping-pong prodigy in Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme, has been overtaken. Jordan now leads at 57%, with Chalamet back at 33% and Leonardo DiCaprio, playing a troubled artist in One Battle After Another, a distant third at 6%.
Jessie Buckley, by contrast, has the most locked-up performance category of the night. Her portrayal of maternal grief in Chloé Zhao's Hamnet sits at 97%, with Rose Byrne a token 2% and Emma Stone at 1%. The market considers this one effectively over.
The supporting races are wide open
Elsewhere, the evening's genuine uncertainty lives in the supporting categories. Sean Penn leads Best Supporting Actor at 77%, but the Best Supporting Actress race is the most competitive on the card: Amy Madigan leads at 49%, with Teyana Taylor at 28% and Wunmi Mosaku close behind at 20%. Three contenders within 29 percentage points with hours to go is as close as these markets get.
What Frankenstein will take home
Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein arrives with more modest acting ambitions but a very clear technical destiny. The market gives it an 82% chance of winning exactly 3 Oscars, almost certainly in the craft categories, with Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling both heavily favoured.
The ceremony begins on Sunday. Anderson may well leave with the night's biggest prize. Coogler's film will define how it is remembered.