Is Gemini really about to usurp ChatGPT? Here's what the latest number say

Every few months the generative AI leaderboard gets reshuffled in our collective imagination. A flashy demo here, a benchmark there, a mysterious memo leaked at exactly the wrong time, and suddenly everyone is wondering if ChatGPT is about to lose the crown.

Google’s Gemini has the momentum, the integration, the viral image generator, and the kind of growth curve product managers dream about. So is it finally ready to unseat ChatGPT.

Not quite. At least not yet.

Sensor Tower’s latest data paints a story that is more nuanced than the panic inside OpenAI’s internal memos. Yes, ChatGPT’s monthly active user growth has slowed to about 6 percent between August and November, reaching roughly 810 million users.

That is still an empire, just one that seems to be running out of continents to conquer. Gemini, meanwhile, is in its Columbus-era, with MAUs jumping 30 percent in the same period and time spent in the app more than doubling, thanks to Nano Banana. It looks like a contender.

But momentum is not dominance. ChatGPT still controls 50 percent of global mobile downloads and 55 percent of global monthly active users. Gemini is catching up, but ChatGPT is still the mountain. Gemini is simply climbing it faster.

And this is where the question gets interesting. Gemini’s biggest advantage is not the model. It is the operating system. Sensor Tower found that around twice as many US Android users interact with Gemini through the OS than through the standalone app.

That is a Trojan horse with a Google logo on the side. It means Gemini can grow without depending on app store theatrics. It is the difference between knocking on doors and having a master key.

So why has it not overtaken ChatGPT already? Because the loyalty curve is still bending in OpenAI’s favour. Its install base remains enormous. Its weekly user count still hovers around 800 million.

And for now, there is no sign that those users are abandoning ship. Slower growth is not the same as churn. Even Google needs more than a good quarter and a photogenic image generator to flip the market leader.

On top of that, Gemini’s current surge is heavily tied to Nano Banana. Viral features are wonderful accelerants but terrible foundations. The question is whether Google can sustain this pace once the novelty wears off.

ChatGPT’s own strength comes from the opposite problem. It has become utility software rather than a toy. People use it for homework, coding, workflows, emails, and spreadsheets. It is hard to displace an app that has quietly turned into infrastructure.

All that said, the threat is real. OpenAI knows it. Hence, Sam Altman’s code red directive telling employees to stop meandering through side projects and focus on making ChatGPT indispensable again. Personalisation, reliability, image generation. Not glamorous, but essential.

Is Gemini ready to dethrone ChatGPT today? No. Could it get there faster than anyone expected? Absolutely. Google has distribution, brand recognition, hardware integration and endless cash. But until it matches ChatGPT’s sheer gravitational pull, winning the growth race does not mean winning the war.