Michael Terpin, the early bitcoin investor known in the industry as the "Crypto Godfather," has forecast that bitcoin must fall roughly 25% from current levels to around $57,000 before a durable recovery can take hold, and that a new all-time high is off the table for 2026.
Terpin, who has been involved in the cryptocurrency industry since 2013 and authored "Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich," told CoinDesk the low will arrive sometime in October.
"Before a bull market for bitcoin can be called, the price needs to break back above $100,000 and no support anywhere near has manifested," Terpin said.
"Despite a double-digit gain thus far in April, we are very much still in a bitcoin fall."
Bitcoin was trading near $76,000 at the time of the interview, up roughly 13% in April after logging its longest monthly losing streak since 2018, with consecutive declines from October through February.
The forecast places Terpin firmly on the bearish end of a divided market.
Bernstein has maintained its target of $150,000 for 2026, with a $200,000 peak cycle target for 2027, while Grayscale has argued that bitcoin likely found a durable floor between $65,000 and $70,000 in the first quarter.
ARK Invest's Q1 Bitcoin Quarterly noted that conviction buyers absorbed roughly 1.47 million BTC during the quarter's 22% drawdown, the fastest accumulation pace since the 2020 cycle.
Mati Greenspan, managing director at Quantum Economics, pushed back on Terpin's timeline directly.
"While I'm hesitant to ever disagree with the Crypto Godfather, his take seems overly bearish to me," Greenspan told CoinDesk.
"We still have lots of room to run this year, given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest. A new all-time high certainly seems plausible."
Nuno Fernandes of AdLunam offered partial support for the bearish case, noting that market sentiment has not reached the extreme pessimism typically associated with cycle bottoms.
"We may still need one more leg down, whether or not it aligns exactly with the $57,000 to $59,000 range, before a sustainable base is formed," Fernandes said.
Spot bitcoin ETF balances closed the first quarter near 1.29 million BTC and remained roughly flat over the period, suggesting institutional holders are not capitulating even as prices declined.
The Fed's interest rate decision later this week and first-quarter US GDP data are expected to set the tone for risk assets heading into May.
The recap
- Early investor says bitcoin has not yet hit its bottom
- Forecast calls for bitcoin to drop to $57,000 in October
- Investor says a new all-time high is off the table for 2026