Cboe Global Markets, stalwarts of the global derivative markets, it is introducing a prediction markets framework that offers three potential payout outcomes - and will first appear as a Mini S&P 500 Index (Mini‑SPX) contract.
The move by the exchange operator departs from typical binary event contracts by adding a defined partial‑payout zone that lets traders earn a partial return when they are directionally correct but not precisely on target.
Under a patent‑pending structure, contracts can deliver a $0 payout, a partial payout within a defined "payout zone," or a full $100 payout, Cboe highlighted.
"Our new prediction market contracts essentially take the mechanics of a traditional vertical spread – one of the most popular options strategies – and package them in an intuitive, accessible format for a broader audience," said JJ Kinahan, Head of Retail Expansion and Alternative Investment Products.
Cboe said the Mini‑SPX product will be securities‑based, use an options wrapper to deliver a fixed return, settle in cash, list on Cboe Options Exchange and be centrally cleared by OCC.
It also noted vertical spread trades averaged nearly 580,000 contracts per day in 0DTE SPX options in 2025, citing rising retail demand.
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"There is clear customer demand to trade around market events tied to the S&P 500 Index, and our new SPX prediction market contracts will just make it easier for even more people to participate in that activity," said Rob Hocking, Global Head of Derivatives at Cboe.
Cboe plans to launch the Mini‑SPX prediction market contract in the second quarter of 2026 and said it may extend the framework to additional indices or stocks in the future.
The recap
Cboe introduces prediction market contracts with three potential payouts.
Contracts pay $0, partial payout in payout zone, or $100.
Mini‑SPX contract to launch in the second quarter of 2026.