Bitfinex saw BTC/USD long positions rise to 79,343, a 28-month high, according to CoinDesk. The surge in bullish bets comes as bitcoin trades in the mid-$60,000 range and has renewed scrutiny from market participants and analysts.
CoinDesk noted the metric has become a textbook "contrary indicator," with past spikes in Bitfinex longs coinciding with price peaks and subsequent declines. Historically, the number of longs has often risen as bitcoin entered downtrends, then fallen as prices recovered.
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Data cited by CoinDesk show a similar pattern late last year, when BTC/USD longs rose 30% in the final quarter of 2025 even as bitcoin's spot price dropped 23% to $87,550. At the same time, bitcoin traded around $66,400, according to CoinDesk data, underscoring the disconnect between derivatives positioning and spot moves.
CoinDesk said the current build-up of longs, combined with macroeconomic pressures — including reports of planned U.S. troop deployments related to the Iran conflict, an oil price shock and fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike — increases the risk that the ongoing bear market could deepen. The publication cautioned that past patterns are not guarantees of future performance.
The recap
- Bitfinex BTC/USD long positions rose to 79,343, 28-month high.
- Spikes in Bitfinex longs historically align with price sell-offs.
- CoinDesk said macro shocks increase risk of deeper bear market.