Bitcoin Just Hit a Technical Red Flag. Is This Why Investors Are Quietly Sliding Into Gold Instead?
Jefferies, the US bank, has a “Greed & Fear” team. Yep, you read that. And, while it is not sounding the alarm, it is edging toward the fire exit. The broker has trimmed its Bitcoin expectations after spotting a set of momentum signals that, in the past, have foreshadowed some of the crypto market’s ugliest drawdowns. It is not a call to abandon the long-term Bitcoin story. It is a reminder that even the most convincing narratives can run too hot, too fast.
The Momentum Break That Spooked Jefferies
The move centres on Bitcoin’s slip below its True Strength Index, a long-horizon momentum gauge that Jefferies treats as an early-warning system. The index has only broken down twice since 2015. Both episodes, in 2018 and 2021, were followed by price collapses of roughly 70% over the next year.
With Bitcoin having peaked near 126,000 dollars in early October, the analysts argue that the “post-halving” surge may have already run its course. Their response is subtle but telling: a one-percentage-point reduction in Bitcoin weighting and a pivot into gold miners. If liquidity is tightening and the speculative cycle is cooling, gold becomes the easier place to hide.
The Alt-Season That May Never Come
The team’s broader warning is aimed squarely at crypto traders waiting for the classic rotation into smaller tokens. That pattern often arrives late in a Bitcoin cycle as capital floods into higher-risk corners of the market. Jefferies thinks this year might break the script. If Bitcoin’s momentum is rolling over, the room for a euphoric alt-season shrinks with it.
A Macro Message Hidden in the Charts
The more provocative takeaway is what this stall says about the wider environment. Despite a halving tailwind, institutional enthusiasm and a strong narrative around AI-driven demand for digital assets, Bitcoin is struggling to make new highs. Jefferies argues that this may point to deteriorating liquidity beneath the surface, a condition that usually drags on risk-on assets from tech stocks to crypto.
Still Bullish, But Not Blind
Jefferies is not abandoning the long-term thesis. It still views Bitcoin as a store of value with structural upside. The shift is tactical. Momentum has cracked, the signals that preceded past crashes are flashing amber and the smarter move, for now, is caution.
When the technicals reset or the macro picture improves, the team says it will move back in. Until then, a little gold looks safer than a lot of hope.
