Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $90,000, but Analysts Say the Rally Still Needs a Real Catalyst
Crypto is rising with stocks again, yet the recovery looks fragile and the next move depends on the Fed
Bitcoin pushed above $90,000 on Wednesday, recovering some of last week’s steep drop, but analysts warn that the move is not yet a sign of a decisive V-shaped comeback.
The cryptocurrency has been drifting higher since hitting $81,000 on Friday, its lowest level since April, but it remains well below the record above $126,000 reached in October.
Equity markets helped set the tone, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extending their recent run of gains as investors increased their bets on a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
Bitcoin often trades in lockstep with the Nasdaq, but that relationship has weakened in recent weeks. The cryptocurrency’s fall has been much more severe than the pullback in tech stocks, which has raised questions about whether crypto traders are responding to a different set of risks.
Strategists at 10X Research argue that Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter strength historically depends on clear catalysts.
Seasonal trends alone rarely deliver gains. They note that markets are currently pricing a 25 basis point December cut, but the Fed’s language at the press conference may matter more than the mechanical decision.
Bitcoin has been more reactive to how the Fed frames the path ahead than to the rate move itself. A cut is not automatically bullish, and a decision to hold could easily trigger a sharper sell-off.
Some speculation has centred on the impact of Treasury General Account spending. A large release of funds earlier this year coincided with an initial Bitcoin decline before a delayed recovery.
Analysts warn that the relationship between the TGA and crypto prices may be weaker than assumed or subject to long lags. Based on previous patterns, any liquidity-driven support might not show up until late January 2026.
Bitcoin’s recovery is encouraging, but it masks the broader reality. The asset is still down almost 30 percent from its peak, correlations with equities have frayed and traders remain focused on macro signals rather than crypto-specific developments.
Until a clearer catalyst emerges, analysts expect consolidation rather than a clean breakout.
