Bitcoin after the storm: what serious investors should expect next

After a violent shakeout, Bitcoin sits near key technical levels with sentiment fragile, flows mixed and macro risk back in the driver’s seat. Here is the near-term map, and how the road into 2026 is shaping up.

Bitcoin just endured its ugliest week in months. A risk-off burst torched leverage across crypto, sending the price from early October highs near US$126,000 to lows close to US$105,000 before stabilising. The sell-off was amplified by heavy liquidations and a wobble in spot exchange traded fund flows. Even in a post-ETF world, crypto still tracks macro conditions and positioning.

The one week view: trade the levels, respect the tape

Technically, the market is hovering around the 200 day moving average, clustered near $109,000 to $110,000. That zone now defines bull market probation. Lose it with volume and the probability of a sweep towards $107,000 and even $105,000 rises. Hold it, and bulls can try to repair structure toward $118,000 to $126,000, the prior supply band. Expect headline sensitive, options driven swings while the market digests last week’s deleveraging.

Flows and positioning argue for choppiness rather than collapse. After strong inflows the previous week, digital asset products still attracted net money even as price fell, a sign that longer horizon allocators were buying weakness. Offsetting that, a sizeable daily outflow hit US spot Bitcoin ETFs late in the week, which signalled short term risk aversion. Net result, a market in price discovery, not capitulation.

The one month view: range first, resolution later

Barring a fresh macro shock, the base case is a broad range between the 200 day area, roughly $110,000, and the recent high supply zone, roughly US$124,000 to $126,000, as leverage rebuilds and options open interest resets. On chain and analyst commentary still point to constructive medium term drivers, including ETF adoption, steady accumulation and a gentler Federal Reserve backdrop. The market likely needs time to rebuild risk tolerance after a large liquidation event. Watch whether ETF flows re accelerate and whether spot leads futures in any rebound. Both would favour an upside resolution into year end.

Two signposts for the next few weeks:

• ETF flow breadth. A return to broad, multi day net inflows across the larger funds would suggest institutions are treating the dip as opportunity, not regime change.
• Macro volatility. Renewed tariff headlines or an equity wobble will cap risk appetite and keep Bitcoin pinned near its 200 day average. Any confirmation of easier policy into 2026 would help restore the digital risk on bid.

Through 2026: constructive, but the path is jagged

Respected houses remain broadly positive into 2026, with targets clustering between $133,000 and $200,000 over the next 12 to 15 months. The anchors are ETF adoption, institutional participation and improving market infrastructure. The message is not moon math. Structural demand from ETFs and corporates has changed the cycle’s plumbing, but it does not erase drawdowns.

UK readers should also note the gradual institutional creep at home. New Bitcoin linked exchange traded products for professional and sophisticated investors are coming to market. Infrastructure maturity tends to compress risk premia over time, but rarely in a straight line.

Technicals that matter now

• 200 day moving average, about $109k to $110k. This is the control line for trend. Sustained closes below increase the risk of a deeper shakeout toward US$105k.
• Resistance at $118k to $126k. This is a former high volume supply area. Acceptance above restores momentum and reopens the all time high debate.
• Market structure. After a forced selling event, rallies are faded until proof of demand returns via spot led advances and healthier ETF prints.

What to watch, and how to position

• Flows. Track weekly digital asset fund flows for confirmation of renewed institutional demand, and the daily US ETF prints for short term sentiment turns.
• Macro tape. Dollar strength and equity volatility remain the fastest transmission mechanisms into crypto risk.
• Derivatives. If funding and call skew rebuild too quickly, expect another shake before any trend continuation. Spot leading futures is the healthy tell.

Bottom line: The near term battle is at the 200 day average. A weekly hold keeps the bull trend intact and favours a grind back into the $120,000s. A clean break lower invites a deeper reset into the low $100,000s. Into 2026, the centre of gravity remains higher as ETFs institutionalise demand, but the trip will feature volatility spikes, headline risk and periodic leverage purges. Trade the levels. Invest with a thesis.